September's Unemployment Number Still Suspicious

Jack Welch and many others think the September unemployment rate was strange. Mr. Welch said this. "I doubt many of us know any businessperson who believes the economy is growing at breakneck speed, as it would have to be for unemployment to drop to 7.8% from 8.3% over the course of two months." My original argument for suspicion had nothing to do with economic growth; it came from the Household Survey itself. I had discovered that the Household Survey never had as huge an increase from August to September as it did this year. Also, the Household Survey had never showed a bigger increase in September than the Establishment Survey showed. (The Bureau of Labor Statistics conducts two surveys every month, one by contacting employers and the other by contacting households. They both measure how many people are working, but the results can and do differ. The Household Survey number is the one used to compute the unemployment rate.) And when something happens that has never happened...(Read Full Article)

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