August 10, 2012
Does High Unemployment Really Hurt Obama?
We've heard thousands of times that a high unemployment rate helps the candidacy of Governor Romney and a low unemployment rate favors President Obama. Maybe so. That certainly makes sense. On the other hand, it flies in the face of obvious and incontrovertible facts. For instance, states with high unemployment rates are likely to vote for President Obama, and states with low rates are likely to vote for Governor Romney. What is going on? First, the facts. The average unemployment rate of states solid for Obama is 9.1% compared to an unemployment rate of 6.8% for solid Romney states. For likely Obama states the rate is 8.7%; likely Romney states have a 6.8% rate. Combining solid and likely states, we get an unemployment rate of 9.0% for solid or likely Obama states compared to 6.8% for solid or likely Romney. Table 1 Solid Obama State Electoral Votes %...(Read Full Article)