Bayes' Theorem and Mr. Obama's Literary Agency

A mathematical tool is offered to evaluate the likelihood, in light of the Breitbart disclosure, that Mr. Obama was born in the United States.   How ought one evaluate the evidentiary significance of the 1991 literary agency promotional booklet claiming that their client Barack Obama was born in Kenya? The "birther" issue is clearly one that is very charged.  This contribution is directed toward those persons who are willing to reason carefully about it no matter what conclusion they may have reached so far.  It should be acknowledged at the outset that no conclusive answers are offered herein.  In fact, the chief result of the following probabilistic analysis is that interesting and potentially important questions are raised that, absent the analysis, might not otherwise have been asked.     It is hoped that the subsequent presentation will help stimulate genuine debate, particularly since persons are encouraged to form their own...(Read Full Article)

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