Herman Cain and the Perfect Storm of 2012

In 2012 the world will see a perfect storm. This is one of those few times in history when a year of crisis is predictable.

Short-term outlook: big ups and downs.

Long-term outlook: much better.

Why?

1. The Biggest Presidential Election of the 21st Century: Will America pick socialism or freedom?

Uncertainty: max.  Outcomes: huge.

2. Iran gets nukes and missiles.  What will they do with them?  Nobody knows.

Uncertainty: max.  Outcomes: huge.

Solution: massively accelerate missile defenses.

Question: will missile defense be an election issue?  (If not, what are elections for?)

3. Saudis prepare for the end of the oil cartel.  OPEC's demise can be predicted from huge shale discoveries around the world from Poland to Montana.  No oil spigot, no cartel.  If the ecomaniacs manage to hobble U.S. shale development, we'll get it from Poland and Canada.  Not even the most radical ecofanatics can stop this development around the world.  Just think what China will do.  The result: no Hugo Chávez with Venezuelan oil, and a steep loss of income for Gulf Arabs.  They might even stop all that hate propaganda against the Wicked West.  In 2012 the markets will predict lower energy prices without strategic bottlenecks like the Persian Gulf.

Uncertainty: minimal.  Outcomes: good for the rest of us. 

4. Dictatorships rise in the Muslim world.  The phony "Arab Spring" will pop like the bubble it always was.  Muslim nations have always gone back to dictatorships after turmoil.  The only question is: will it be a modernizing military dictatorship or the radical Moos?  Or both?  Pakistan is run by an unstable mixture.  That system is sometimes called "fascism."

5. If the US pulls out of Iraq, the Iranians will attack and/or sabotage the third-biggest country in the Middle East.

Uncertainty: max.  Outcomes: terrible.

Prediction: Obama won't pull out.

6. The Eurosocialist stress test.  Historic socialist budget crises in Greece, Spain, Italy, and Ireland will pull down German, French, British, U.S., and worldwide government budgets.  U.N. funding may be at risk. 

Uncertainty: low.  Outcomes: bad at first.

7. Federal and state budgets run dryObamaCare gets major surgery, possibly lethal.  Failure of the European socialist model will affect the United States.

Uncertainty: moderate.  Outcomes: bad, then good.  (After a bubble, reality sets in.)

Welcome to 2012!  At least the predictable parts.

So whom do you want to be president during the perfect storm?

I mean real tornado-speed winds, worse than we've seen since the fall of the Soviet Empire.

If you answered "Obama," take a cold shower and try again.  I think "Herman Cain" is more like it.  The reasons are obvious.  (If they're not, go here.)

Don't get me wrong.  I'm in love with Sarah Palin, personally, and I could go for Anybody But O.  My dream ticket is Cain/Palin or Palin/Cain.  But both will be under pressure to pick a good foreign policy head for veep.

How about Palin/Rummy?

That would be a kick.

In 2012 the world will see a perfect storm. This is one of those few times in history when a year of crisis is predictable.

Short-term outlook: big ups and downs.

Long-term outlook: much better.

Why?

1. The Biggest Presidential Election of the 21st Century: Will America pick socialism or freedom?

Uncertainty: max.  Outcomes: huge.

2. Iran gets nukes and missiles.  What will they do with them?  Nobody knows.

Uncertainty: max.  Outcomes: huge.

Solution: massively accelerate missile defenses.

Question: will missile defense be an election issue?  (If not, what are elections for?)

3. Saudis prepare for the end of the oil cartel.  OPEC's demise can be predicted from huge shale discoveries around the world from Poland to Montana.  No oil spigot, no cartel.  If the ecomaniacs manage to hobble U.S. shale development, we'll get it from Poland and Canada.  Not even the most radical ecofanatics can stop this development around the world.  Just think what China will do.  The result: no Hugo Chávez with Venezuelan oil, and a steep loss of income for Gulf Arabs.  They might even stop all that hate propaganda against the Wicked West.  In 2012 the markets will predict lower energy prices without strategic bottlenecks like the Persian Gulf.

Uncertainty: minimal.  Outcomes: good for the rest of us. 

4. Dictatorships rise in the Muslim world.  The phony "Arab Spring" will pop like the bubble it always was.  Muslim nations have always gone back to dictatorships after turmoil.  The only question is: will it be a modernizing military dictatorship or the radical Moos?  Or both?  Pakistan is run by an unstable mixture.  That system is sometimes called "fascism."

5. If the US pulls out of Iraq, the Iranians will attack and/or sabotage the third-biggest country in the Middle East.

Uncertainty: max.  Outcomes: terrible.

Prediction: Obama won't pull out.

6. The Eurosocialist stress test.  Historic socialist budget crises in Greece, Spain, Italy, and Ireland will pull down German, French, British, U.S., and worldwide government budgets.  U.N. funding may be at risk. 

Uncertainty: low.  Outcomes: bad at first.

7. Federal and state budgets run dryObamaCare gets major surgery, possibly lethal.  Failure of the European socialist model will affect the United States.

Uncertainty: moderate.  Outcomes: bad, then good.  (After a bubble, reality sets in.)

Welcome to 2012!  At least the predictable parts.

So whom do you want to be president during the perfect storm?

I mean real tornado-speed winds, worse than we've seen since the fall of the Soviet Empire.

If you answered "Obama," take a cold shower and try again.  I think "Herman Cain" is more like it.  The reasons are obvious.  (If they're not, go here.)

Don't get me wrong.  I'm in love with Sarah Palin, personally, and I could go for Anybody But O.  My dream ticket is Cain/Palin or Palin/Cain.  But both will be under pressure to pick a good foreign policy head for veep.

How about Palin/Rummy?

That would be a kick.