Obama Likely Will Lose in 2012

If one examines the history of previous presidential elections it becomes obvious that the most likely outcome next November is the defeat of President Obama in his campaign for reelection.  In fact, historical trends point towards a blowout. Let's begin with the obvious: the economy.  In the last century there have been seventeen times where an incumbent president has sought reelection.  Twelve of those campaigns have been successful and five unsuccessful.  The defeated presidents -- George Bush in 1992, Jimmy Carter in 1980, Gerald Ford in 1976, Herbert Hoover in 1932, and William Howard Taft in 1912 -- share a number of common traits. First -- four of the five faced a serious challenge for re-nomination.  Bush faced off against Pat Buchanan, Carter against Ted Kennedy and Jerry Brown, Ford against Ronald Reagan, and Taft against Theodore Roosevelt.  In fact, if we expand our sample to include the three presidents who desired to be reelected but...(Read Full Article)

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