2010 Predictions: A Pretty Big Wave

Tomorrow will be a good day for a political party all but written off as dead two years ago. To measure the significance of the gains the GOP will make, it is worth looking back a bit at the last few election cycles. It is also be important to look forward. If the GOP nominates a broadly acceptable candidate for president  in 2012 -- meaning one who can win a majority of independent voters, as the GOP is doing this year -- we may be able to look forward to a one-term Obama presidency. The SenateAfter the 2004 election, the GOP held 55 Senate seats. After 2008, and the party switch of Arlen Specter, that number dropped to 40, giving the Democrats for a few months (until Scott Brown's victory) a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate. It was during those few months that the health care reform bill passed the Senate, and it was Brown's victory that forced the Democrats to use a "reconciliation" approach to get a revised health care reform bill into law.  The GOP...(Read Full Article)

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