Our Melting President

Slowly, methodically, consistently, the reliable Rasmussen Poll has been tracking the most vital numbers of the Obama Presidency.  General, soft numbers like "Do you approve of the way the president is handlings his job?" really mean nothing.  In times of crisis, most people will answer "yes."   This is particularly true when a young articulate president who is splattered over every single magazine in every grocery checkout line with happy photos with his wife and kids, and when every tough question -- both of them -- in his press conferences is simply ignored.

It is not the soft, fluffy feelings about Obama that really matter.  It is the intense feelings about him.  Obama began his presidency with a lot of very enthusiastic support.  About forty-five percent of Americans "strongly approved" of the job he was doing, while an anemic fifteen percent of Americans "strongly disapproved" of the job he was doing.  In a couple of months, that gap between the "strongly approve" and "strongly disapprove" closed to a gap of between eight and ten points.  The number who strongly approved glided down into the high thirties, while the number who strongly disapproved just about doubled, into the low thirties.

From April to mid-June, Obama seemed to have a fairly comfortable margin between his strong supporters and strong opponents, sometimes closing to a point or less and sometimes widening to about ten points.  But the last couple of weeks have not been kind.  Several days, the percentage of Americans who strongly disapproved of Obama was actually greater than the percentage of Americans who strongly approved of Obama.  As of June 30, the number of strongly disapprove is actually two points greater than the number who strongly approve.

What does this mean?  Well, it does not mean that the flighty, rock star popularity of Obama is fading, but it does mean that any deep enthusiasm for him has grown progressively weaker, just as the number of Americans who are deeply worried about him has kept growing.  It means -- and the polls show this too -- that more and more Americans are holding Obama accountable for our economy and no longer blame President Bush.   It means that action, or inaction, about the riots against the mullahs in Iran will hurt Obama if our position is perceived as causing failure.  It means that the far left Kool Aid drinkers who thought that after inauguration day Obama would simply withdraw close Gitmo feel like idiots (mainly, of course, because they look like idiots.)

When your political opponents are more energized and upset than your political allies, that is a very bad sign.  In the rapidly approaching 2009 elections in New Jersey and Virginia, the decline and fall of Barack Obama may translate into Democrat losses.  If Americans grow tired and impatient with a celebrity president who presides over our troubles and poverty, then the big slam could come in 2010.  Republicans who turned out in 1994 were turning out against Clinton.  Democrats who stayed home were staying home because Clinton went from inspiring celebrity to just another vote-trading politician in a couple of years.

Republicans do not need a 1994 Tsunami to de-rail Obama.  A couple of dozen House seats and a handful of Senate seats will force Obama's last two years in the White House into a Jimmy Carter holding action.  The key poll to watch is not the goofy and doctored nonsense of the Leftist press, but the day by day scrupulous polling of Scott Rasmussen.  If the slow, and sometimes uneven, trend continues, and by September the percentage of Americans who "strongly disapprove" of Obama is in the low forties, then the American people have gotten wise to this Chicago politician and his demands that Congress pass huge unread (even unwritten) bills as a way to cure our problems.

Paraphrasing a famous Chicago minister (who -- so eloquently! -- preached the Gospel of Love) Obama's Chickens will have come home to roost.

Bruce Walker is the author of two books:  Sinisterism: Secular Religion of the Lie, and his recently published book, The Swastika against the Cross: The Nazi War on Christianity.
Slowly, methodically, consistently, the reliable Rasmussen Poll has been tracking the most vital numbers of the Obama Presidency.  General, soft numbers like "Do you approve of the way the president is handlings his job?" really mean nothing.  In times of crisis, most people will answer "yes."   This is particularly true when a young articulate president who is splattered over every single magazine in every grocery checkout line with happy photos with his wife and kids, and when every tough question -- both of them -- in his press conferences is simply ignored.

It is not the soft, fluffy feelings about Obama that really matter.  It is the intense feelings about him.  Obama began his presidency with a lot of very enthusiastic support.  About forty-five percent of Americans "strongly approved" of the job he was doing, while an anemic fifteen percent of Americans "strongly disapproved" of the job he was doing.  In a couple of months, that gap between the "strongly approve" and "strongly disapprove" closed to a gap of between eight and ten points.  The number who strongly approved glided down into the high thirties, while the number who strongly disapproved just about doubled, into the low thirties.

From April to mid-June, Obama seemed to have a fairly comfortable margin between his strong supporters and strong opponents, sometimes closing to a point or less and sometimes widening to about ten points.  But the last couple of weeks have not been kind.  Several days, the percentage of Americans who strongly disapproved of Obama was actually greater than the percentage of Americans who strongly approved of Obama.  As of June 30, the number of strongly disapprove is actually two points greater than the number who strongly approve.

What does this mean?  Well, it does not mean that the flighty, rock star popularity of Obama is fading, but it does mean that any deep enthusiasm for him has grown progressively weaker, just as the number of Americans who are deeply worried about him has kept growing.  It means -- and the polls show this too -- that more and more Americans are holding Obama accountable for our economy and no longer blame President Bush.   It means that action, or inaction, about the riots against the mullahs in Iran will hurt Obama if our position is perceived as causing failure.  It means that the far left Kool Aid drinkers who thought that after inauguration day Obama would simply withdraw close Gitmo feel like idiots (mainly, of course, because they look like idiots.)

When your political opponents are more energized and upset than your political allies, that is a very bad sign.  In the rapidly approaching 2009 elections in New Jersey and Virginia, the decline and fall of Barack Obama may translate into Democrat losses.  If Americans grow tired and impatient with a celebrity president who presides over our troubles and poverty, then the big slam could come in 2010.  Republicans who turned out in 1994 were turning out against Clinton.  Democrats who stayed home were staying home because Clinton went from inspiring celebrity to just another vote-trading politician in a couple of years.

Republicans do not need a 1994 Tsunami to de-rail Obama.  A couple of dozen House seats and a handful of Senate seats will force Obama's last two years in the White House into a Jimmy Carter holding action.  The key poll to watch is not the goofy and doctored nonsense of the Leftist press, but the day by day scrupulous polling of Scott Rasmussen.  If the slow, and sometimes uneven, trend continues, and by September the percentage of Americans who "strongly disapprove" of Obama is in the low forties, then the American people have gotten wise to this Chicago politician and his demands that Congress pass huge unread (even unwritten) bills as a way to cure our problems.

Paraphrasing a famous Chicago minister (who -- so eloquently! -- preached the Gospel of Love) Obama's Chickens will have come home to roost.

Bruce Walker is the author of two books:  Sinisterism: Secular Religion of the Lie, and his recently published book, The Swastika against the Cross: The Nazi War on Christianity.