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July 01, 2008 Colombia's Turnaround StoryBy Mark LoftinNext week John McCain will be visiting Colombian President Alvaro Uribe, a brave leader surrounded by leftist regimes who deserves much praise for turning the country around. Ask most anyone what comes to mind when mentioning Colombia, and they will likely respond cocaine trafficking, Pablo Escobar, Guerilla rebels, and rampant violence and kidnappings. But times have changed. Last week Moody's investment grading service upgraded the country's debt from "Ba2" to "Ba1", one notch below what is considered "investment grade". This is a strong vote of confidence for a country even the most steel-nerved investors wouldn't touch five years ago. A senior analyst at Moody's states:
Alvaro, a staunch supporter of free markets, knows that the quelling of rampant violence and economic growth are sequential events: In order for investors - both local and foreign - to have enough confidence to bet their dollars on Colombia's growth, the nation's security must first be dealt with. Colombia's investment environment and security situation are intricately linked, as Ben Laidler of UBS Pactual (one of the few investment banks in the country) stated in BusinessWeek:
Kidnappings in the country, once numbering well into the thousands annually, are now down in the 200 annual range, and Alvaro's iron fist (which may be sourced to the fact that his parents were killed by leftist guerillas in 1983) is accomplishing what was once unthinkable: the destruction of the country's Marxist guerilla group FARC. Indeed, my dusty 2003 edition of Robert Pelton's The World's Most Dangerous Places, which gives Colombia a five-out-of-five star rating on the danger scale (only the likes of Chechnya and Liberia attained this coveted award), states the following shortly after Uribe took office:
How times have changed under Uribe. As The Economist reports in this article titled "Peace for Colombia? Why the FARC's defeat looks to be only a matter of time":
This build-up transformed the war, driving the FARC away from the towns. Recent changes of government strategy are now bearing fruit. These involve encouraging guerrilla desertions and targeting the leadership. The FARC are now losing more deserters than they are gaining new recruits, according to General Freddy Padilla de León, the armed-forces' commander. ‘They are reduced militarily, isolated politically, have a reduced social base and we are cutting their finance [by acting against their drug business]. It's impossible for them to return to the cities,' he says." The death of Manual Marulanda, FARC's notorious leader, has also played a major role - though it is debated whether the cause of his death last May was the result of Alvaro's military bombardments (the military's version) or a heart attack (FARC's version). With violence subsiding and confidence in the country's stability on the rise, that astute Alvaro knew the time was right to begin privatizing industries, selling stakes in Bogotá's state-owned phone company, and last year, Ecopetrol, the state-owned oil industry. The privatization of state run oil behemoth deserves special mention. With production falling under state rule, Ecopetrol's CEO is now hoping that Ecopetrol in ten years will be the great success Brazil's Petrobras is today. The techniques used to market shares of the company show Uribe's dogged determination to spread the allure of investing in the stock market to all those in the economic ladder. Not only can shares can be paid for in installments, but they can be purchased at local supermarkets. With twelve years experience in the finance industry, including three years in emerging markets, I've never seen this technique used for selling shares. In the three-year Chartered Financial Analyst curriculum, including extensive study in international markets, this method of bringing a company to market is not mentioned once. I think it is stroke of genius, and as BNET Globale Finance reports, it has played has crucial role in the citizens' confidence in their country:
On a side note, isn't it interesting that we have Democrats in this country like Maxine Waters that would rather go the opposite direction taken by Colombia's leftist neighbors like communist thug Hugo Chavez, and nationalize our oil? What a surprise. While things have improved substantially under Uribe's rule, like many emerging market countries, it is beset with problems that will take years to show improvement. Violence is still high by international standards, the country's infrastructure is outdated and overburdened, cocaine is still trafficked, and wiping out the corruption inherent in many of the country's institutions won't happen overnight. Opponents of Uribe -- like the American left -- accuse him of being connected with paramilitaries on the right, and this last point is why democrats like Obama and Clinton claim to opposed to free trade with Colombia. But as The Economist points out, Uribe has not been implicated in any wrongdoing. While the level of McCain's conservatism has been justifiably been under fire for many of his positions - Global Warming, illegal immigration, GTMO, oil profits - McCain's recent actions are encouraging. He reversed himself on ANWR to support drilling, spoke out against the Supreme Court's child rape verdict, spoke in favor of the upholding of the 2nd amendment, and next week will be solidifying a relationship cultivated by George Bush with the region's prominent conservative leader - a leader that has shown the fruits of diligently applying conservative principles.
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Comments
TWO points:
1. When I watched that Democrat Marxist Maxine of NY shamelessly introducing government control of oil industry, I made a full decision that I'm gonna vote for McCain this fall and I will encourage all of my neighbors actively to vote for him. This time, I will be as an activist like those CODEPINK girls on TV. If these people hate free market operation, why don't they go first to the Economics and Finance people of the Academe and change all textbooks on the said subjects... teaching Marxism. If they convince the Academe (Economists are most objective people in the World) to back them up, then I will reconsider my position.
2. COLOMBIA needs our support. Too late for isolationism. Support to Uribe is one of Bush Administration "positive" legacies. Common, MSM, why can't you admit that this one is uncontestable. Speeches of Obama in the primaries vis-a-vis Uribe is the best laid plan to remove the spell of Obama to the Hispanics.
Posted by: gerber | July 1, 2008 04:08 AM
Sounds like the surge concept had roots in Columbia,s battles.Amazing that this idea is so effective in so many differing environments. Good luck to the people of Columbia. The long haul is just starting but with hope and hard work they may well get to where they want to be.
Posted by: Rich k | July 1, 2008 04:18 AM
I hope you will consider the following related Op-Ed piece that I wrote:
A Step Towards Respect of Our Laws and The Social Mores by Legalizing Drugs (and Obama)
It's long but I like the last paragraph where Obama is asked a question.
http://www.australia.to/international/0,25197,23040467-318,00,00.html
&
http://zachjonesishome.wordpress.com/a-step-towards-respect-of-our-laws-and-the-social-moray-by-legalizing-drugs/
Thank you, "Zach"
Posted by: ZachJonesIsHome | July 1, 2008 06:17 AM
Marulanda didn't die in May. He died in March, and his death was reported in May.
Posted by: Gringo | July 1, 2008 08:53 AM
Thanks AT for bringing us news that is never reported on the BM (biased media). I am humbled by President Uribe's courage. The FARC have been around for decades, and they are indeed the most dangerous terrorists' on the planet.
I wish everyone in this country would think critically about this event, even though I know I'm whistling in the wind. My respect for McCain did go up a slight notch after reading this article.
Posted by: Pam L | July 1, 2008 10:32 AM
Zach**
You compare running long distances with Heroine use? How do you expect anyone to take that seriously? The after effects of "being consumed by work" and those of harsh drugs have no base for comparison.
Ther "operative word of One's self" applies maybe to that first hit of coke, but what happens when the drug user starts to steal, rob and burgul to retain that "self" motive?
Why on earth can't people connect the dots.
Posted by: Travis | July 1, 2008 11:42 AM
As a hispanic I don't understand the high approval for Obama and were they get their figures from. 90% of my friends and family can't stand him or Hillary. I tell you he will not carry the hispanic vote, at least not the in the main land. God Bless us all if this flip flapping two face Obama wins.
Posted by: Fernando V. | July 1, 2008 07:26 PM
Watch, if BHO gets into office, he'll abandon Uribe like Carter abandoned the Shah in 79. We'll lose our only friend in the region just like we lost Iran. They use the weak, lame excuses that these people (Uribe) aren't perfect, so they don't deserve the support. I just hope Mccain will back him if he gets in.
How many parallels do we need here before the US wakes up and realizes who our friends are?
Posted by: Chris Carpenter | July 1, 2008 07:34 PM
If we are going to fund a war on drugs, lets actually do something about demand. Drug test anyone that gets (other than a refund of your own taxes and SSI retirement) a government check - from elected officials to employees to welfare recipients. Seems a little hypocritical to demand some professions to be drug tested and to fund a "war on drugs" if we won't ensure we aren't funding the demand with our tax dollars.
Posted by: Karla B | July 8, 2008 12:17 PM