June 15, 2008

Can McCain Remain Competitive?

By Ned Barnett
If money is the mother's milk of politics, then Senator John McCain seems intent on going on a hunger strike. 

Barack Obama has proved to be the most effective fund-raiser in the history of American politics, at a time when McCain seems to be doing all he can to make sure that he cannot raise enough in campaign contributions to stay competitive.

If Senator McCain fails in his bid for the presidency, more than any other candidate in recent memory he will well and truly have been hoist on his own petard.  His McCain-Feingold law deprives him of the resources he might raise from well-heeled individual donors -- including his remarkably wealthy wife, Cindy, who is as incapable today as Theresa Heinz Kerry had been four years ago of financially supporting her candidate husband.  However, it's not too late for Senator McCain to recognize what he's done to himself, as well as how he can turn this around.

Because of restrictions placed on fundraising by the McCain-Feingold Campaign Finance Reform bill became law, big donors are dramatically limited.  This, in turn, puts a premium on the quantity of donors, rather than the size of  each donation, and elevates the importance for each candidate of continuing to court their ideological core, who are the most likely donors.  Senator Obama has done an exceptional job of capturing the zeitgeist of the Democratic Party's left and many youths, and millions have opened their wallets. Small donors outweigh  those who max out.

About 45% of the $265 million Mr. Obama has raised came from donations of $200 or less, but a third came from contributions of $2,300 or more.

The Hill reports that Senator Obama may raise as much as $100 million in June alone. The sheer volume of those donations has created a tidal-wave of political mother's milk, with spillage onto other Democratic Party candidates.  Small donors can make multiple contributions, and with 4 and half months to the election, this motivated group will continue to give.

On the other hand, with the sole exception of his stirring and persuasive CPAC speech in early February, Senator McCain has adopted a strategy of running away from his conservative base in an effort to attract moderate and independent voters.  While that strategy may work in attracting voters, it has so far proved to be a dismal failure as a foundation for successful fund-raising.

Since his speech at CPAC in early February, where McCain made a seemingly effective effort to paint himself as a conservative, he has done nothing to reach out to his Conservative base, and many things to alienate it.  While McCain may be right that it will be independent voters who will put him over the top in November, few Independents will donate to his campaign.  Donations are the realm of the motivated true-believers, and McCain has intentionally alienated those of the GOP (figuring that, in November, they'll have nowhere else to go). 

That could be his fatal mistake.  That may explain why MAPLight.org, a non-profit campaign financing watchdog group, reports that while Senator Obama has raised more than $272 million as of June 9, 2008, Senator McCain has raised just $106 million dollars -- barely 39% of the amount raised by his opponent.

Traditionally (i.e., in the campaigns since Reagan defeated Carter in 1980) Republicans have always out-fund-raised the Democrats. They did this primarily because they were able to motivate their passionate Conservative base, people ready to put their money where their mouth is.  But this base has been largely turned off by maverick McCain's consistent Bush-bashing, along with his crossing the aisle support of issues dear to the hearts of Liberals. At a time when he desperately needs the passionate support of the Conservative base, Senator McCain has been so busy proving that he's not running for "Bush's Third Term" that he's starving his campaign of donations -- the money he needs to stay competitive.

McCain must turn this situation around, remaining competitive among moderate and independent voters, while appealing directly to his Conservative base. He needs to give Conservatives solid and affirmative reasons to contribute to his campaign., volunteer, and turn out to vote, while not alienating centrists. He needs to campaign on issues that put the left on the defensive. Three examples:

Judges: McCain could campaign on his pledge to appoint Supreme Court and Appellate justices who will interpret the Constitution, rather than rewriting it and publicly provide Conservatives a short-list of the kinds of people he'd appoint. Enforcing the law as written has gut level appeal to the base, and it makes sense to most people not on the left. He could supply  a list of about a dozen rock-solid judges who are not partisan and not prone to legislating from the bench.

Missile Defense: McCain could campaign on expanding and energizing the development of the missile defense shield.  With Korea having  operational medium-range nuclear missiles, and with Iran developing medium-range missiles and nukes and proclaiming Israel a goner, Senator McCain could commit to implementing a missile defense shield that will protect the US, our European allies and Israel from premeditated covert nuclear attack. 

Small Government: McCain sells himself as a fiscal conservative, and is positioned to appeal to centrists sick of taxes and stories of wasteful spending. But he rarely sells himself as an advocate of small government. This is a core value with crossover appeal.

Ned Barnett is a political strategist and the owner of Barnett Marketing Communications in Las Vegas, Nevada, and writes a regular column on crisis PR for the International Association of Business Communicators.

Comments

Fergitabout McCain. Ever time he opens his mouth, he reveals just what a pathetic old fool he really is. He does not seem to have a clue or doesn't care how much his energy and immigration policies damage America and the GOP. RINO McCain is going to lose bigtime in Noivember. In fact, I think he has already lost. His only hope will be to change his positions on imigration and energy. Thanks Howard

McCain just needs to hang in there. Sen. Obama's prospects may take a turn south after Larry Sinclair has his press conference at the National Press Club. He has had to get a bigger room that will hold 110 guests. The time has also been extended. This event will occur June 18, 2008 from 1pm to 5pm. Standing alone this would probably get ignored, but taken in context of all of Sen. Obama's past associations, who knows where the truth may be. Zach

Stop this defeatist codswallop; the mother's milk has soured; the cash cow's power-giving liquid has curdled!
If money were all it is about, Mccain should have been pushing up daisies by March. c.f. Mitt Romney.
If money were all it is about, Clinton should have been a stinking corpse by April! c.f. Obama.
Give the American People some credit for political savvy, please!
But then again.....

McCain may win in November. If so, it will probably be because Dem voters were turned off to Obama, for various reasons, not because they particularly like McCain and I expect conservatives to stay home or vote third party. The McCain crowd will interpret this as acceptance of their approach, but that would be denial, in my opinion. Also, McCain could adopt your suggestions, but he has a huge credibility problem. Most of the people I talk to don't believe him when it comes to conservative issues. You can't spend 8 years marching further and further left and then expect people will believe you when you suddenly make a right turn.

At the beginning of this too long campaign, I was a Thompson supporter and when he dropped out I moved over to Romney. And now that we have McCain as our nominee, I am having a very hard time deciding whether I am going to vote for this man for POTUS. It still amazes me that he is going to be our nominee. The way the national party planned this primary season was a disgrace. To have it front loaded like it was did not give the electorate near enough time to vet the candidates and observe how they conducted themselves in various venues and deal with the myriad types of pressure that comes with an intense campaign spread out over many months. (I know some of you will say I am talking out of both sides of my mouth by saying the primary season was too long and then noting that the candidates did not have enough time to be vetted. It is the schedule dates of the primary votes to which I am referring to. And as far as the length of time, the POTUS wannabes who threw their hats in the ring and the press coverage and reporting began way too soon. Two years of presidential campaigning is ridiculous!) And, look at what we have. A candidate who has betrayed the party base and pays lip service to us Republicans whose support is indespensable in order to fund a national campaign. John McCain deserves every bit of the financial problems he is having trying to keep pace with his opponent as noted in Mr. Barnett's post. I can tell you this, I do not plan on giving one dime to his campaign or, any other candidate running for public office and I have NEVER voted for a Democratic candidate for POTUS and I don't plan on breaking that habit in November. I know that The Obamessiah is without a doubt the most un-qualified and empty suit to win a presidential nomination in my lifetime and quite possibly in our country's history. And when the proverbial rubber meets the road, I will have to do what McCain's mother said I will have to do and that is hold my nose and vote for her son because the alternative is way too scary and dangerous and my sense of Patriotism will not allow me to aid in helping the Dem's nominee win. GOOD LUCK Mr. McCain in your fund raising efforts and I hope that unconstitutional McCain-Feingold bill you guided into law and the accompanied petard fits real well because you now look like a fool wearing it!

Conservative judges? A missile shield? A small government? He's already advocating this. What more do you want? And BTW, Obama and the DNC combined have LESS funds than John McCain and the RNC combined. That's because both Obama and the DNC are spending more cash (proportionally to the donations they get) than the RNC and McCain. I've already seen a similar article on NRO 'Obama the Money Wizard'; it was good but its basic premise was flawed. That could also be said about this article.

The only way McCain can win is if Obama loses. McCain's support among conservatives (like me) has dwindled to zero because we will NOT support someone who is determined to cast conservatism to the wind to prostitute himself for liberal votes. Call it what you wish, but this conservative is, as of now, staying home in November. The ONLY way McCain has a chance is if he renounces illegal immigration, amnesty, and everything liberal and regains his sanity. Since that ain't gonna' happen. . .

McCain reaps what he sowed with MF Reform. As to Obama, a fool and his money are soon parted.
As to Jeffry's usual rants, Obama is the most viable candidate in history? Really? The history of where? So, let me think, Washington, Lincoln, Roosevelt (which your party has all but abandon), Reagan. They were not viable candidates? Explain, just once, your point.
In fact, your rant reminds me of a book I own and have read several times. It is by Joseph Goebbels and is called The Life of the Fuhrer. Your rants reminds me how they sold Hitler to the German people. It is quite instructive and your talking points strike a amazing parallel.
All substance, no form.
Explain how Obama will make me more Free Jeffry?

Obama's contributors are asked to contribute to a cause. The McCain campaign asks for contributions to a man.

The McCain campaign should ask people to contribute to Wining the war, Stimulating the economy, and Drilling to drive down energy costs.

Forget it Jeffrey Pages! You are having a very nice dream! Mr. Obama will be president but his presidency will be a disaster! Oh yes, prosperity will come during his presidency making people gush all over themselves about how great he is. But dream on, he is a member of the council of foreign affairs which means he is no different than the others except he has people deceived like no one I have ever seen! The prosperity and peace will be short lived! No, Mr. Obama is not the new messiah or a lightbearer or any of this other nonsense I have read, far from it! Wake up people! The problem we have is we do not have a true leader running for president at this point!

Jeffry Pages- Wow. If Obama loses, which is very possible at this point, I guess you will into major depression and will be commiting suicide when your brave new world doesn't become reality.
Thanks for your agitprop post though. I enjoyed reading it. Dosvydanya comrade.

Is it correct that campaign donations of less than $200 can be anonymous? If so, what strikes me is all of the articles reporting that most other countries, especially enemies of America, want Obama to be our president. Are they voting in our election with their checkbooks or paypal accounts?

Has anyone investigated or reported on this, or am I jumping to mistaken and paranoid conclusions?

Best regards,

'Conservative judges? A missile shield? A small government? He's already advocating this.'

Though, to be fair, he doesn't follow up on this rhetoric. I have just discovered that contrary to his claims, McCain has voted for two judicial activists - RB Ginsburg and SG Breyer - the two most liberal SCOTUS Justices ever. Sources:

http://tinyurl.com/8r2qt
http://tinyurl.com/b9g46

YES, MCCAIN VOTED TO CONFIRM JUSTICE GINSBURG AND JUSTICE BREYER.

Contrary to the thesis of this article, McCain is reaching out to conservatives - I get at least a letter a week from McCain asking me for money. He promises me that he's really a conservative and will stand up for conservative principles. He's tried every gambit suggested in this article. I just don't believe him and keep my wallet firmly shut. McCain's problem is he's stuck it to conservative causes too often, too gleefully, and too publicly for him to have any credibility now. I will vote for him, but I'm not fooling myself that I'm voting for a conservative. I'm just voting for "liberal lite with a strong defense" against "socialism disguised as liberalism."

Ned, you conveniently omit the $10-to-$1 advantage that the RNC has over the DNC right now. When you add in these numbers, McCain's financial position vis-a-vis Obama & the Democrats looks much better. Plus, McCain just had his best fund-raising month yet in May, pulling in $22 million.

McCain's campaign will have plenty of money in the Fall. Besides, the candidate with the most money doesn't automatically win. If that were the case, then Mitt Romney would be the GOP nominee.

Despite all of Obama's fund-raising prowess, fawning media coverage, a weak economy, skyrocketing gas prices, declining real estate values, and a Republican president with approval ratings in the low 30s, McCain is still nipping at Obama's heels in the polls. As people start to learn more and more about who Obama really is and what he really represents, its infatuation with him will begin to fade and McCain will move into the lead.

McCain will win in November, Mark it down.

Oh, and "Howard", you're an idiot.

McCain can win only with Alaska Gov Sarah Palin as his Veep.

Both major party and their candidates are trying to raise money to spend in an effort to convince US, the voters, that they are the person we want to lead us. Of what use to spend all that money to that effect when they have shown us with their actions what they are all about. (Believe what they say in their ads, NOT what your own lying eyes and ears tell you)! It's not how much money any of them have, it's how much "We, The Voters" believe them that counts. I've made donations to a campaign and intend to donate more. But it isn't to the Republicans, nor the Democrats. Those two "has been and never were" parties are dysfunctional and useless in my opinion. The BUCK and the "Quid Pro Quo" stops here!

I continue to be surprised at the conservatives who fight with McCain. You're in the middle of the election year and still are arguing with McCain while he needs to fight a candidate with the biggest warchest, media advantage and rock star appeal in history. McCain, on the other hand, faces a demoralized base and a party with the most unpopular president in history.

This undermining article and others like it that attack McCain's energy policy (not ANWAR-based) instead of following your candidate's lead is an example of what is wrong with the party.

You have to lose everything -- white house, senate and house -- for years, before you will become motivated to step out of the insular rut and see that the things you espouse are no longer competitive.

The very fact that candidates have to raise money from the electorate at large to hit the kind of numbers Obama has hit, means that they have to start making sense to a lot of people, not just the base. Obama's fundraising has turned the politics of competitiveness on its ear. A successful candidate has to be both intensely supported by his/her narrow base and also capture the imagination or the minds of large groups across America.

McCain's biggest problem right now is the sense of entitlement and complacency of a spoiled, right-wing base. The Bush years have created an insular culture in which a small percentage of extremists force their agendas, priorities and decisions on the larger population. The popular support for Obama's movement is in part a backlash against that, in fact.

The conservative, right wing base is very spoiled and its withholding its support from McCain, refusing to follow him, and its pundits are arguing with him instead of helping get his message across and sell his policies and ideas to the country.

His pandering more to a spoiled base that is insisting on having dominance over the rest of the country's agenda isn't the solution to winning this election. It's the right-wing base's realization that it will lose, lose and lose until it abandons its entrenched, insular and entitlement-minded culture and joins the mainstream at least enough to compromise, and follow the leadership of its candidate that will enable Republicans to win this year. I doubt that will happen in time. I think McCain's window of opportunity is closing and it's already too late for him to do anything with what he has to work with this year.

He could win, but the Republican base won't follow his lead. Led by the pundits who keep arguing with him instead of helping him reformulate and update the party platform for this century, you're all sitting in your deluded bubbles, arguing with him and undermining him. You're like football players arguing with the coach on what plays to put in the book, when the game has already started.

Hah hah! This is great! The Democrats smell BLOOD, because it is on the hands of the Republican dopes. It's over now for you Bushites, unless the Man (Cheney) behind the Village Idiot cooks up a crisis in October and cancels elections. Don't think it can happen?

President Barack H. Obama. The most REVOLUTIONARY president in our history since Lincoln.

Colorado is turning BLUE.

DRILL.


This "I just won't vote" stance is childish and rediculous. With the only choice being either A or B, you're going to vote for C? Conservative-in-name-only McCain sickens me, but I'll vote for him: better a disgrace than a disaster.

I'm a 48 year old white male and I've made two contributions to Obama over the Internet--first I've made in my entire adult life. The mere election of Obama will do more to restore the global reputation of the US than an army of PR consultants. It says that our country's most cherished values are true, not just window dressing.

I would never vote for the abortion/baby murdering advocate, marxist fraud OBAMA! Only the truly blind, ignorant or bloodthirsty will cast a vote for him.

McCain in 2008

How is Obama going to move us to a society where race doesn't matter when he supports racial preferences? Obama's calling card is simply to say what sounds good and do whatever he feels like anyway.

What conservatives fail to understand, is that the GOP base has now shrunk to the point that a GOP candidate cannot win the Presidency no matter how much the GOP base is "motivated." There just aren't enough hard-core Republicans anymore for the Karl Rove strategy of turning out the GOP base to work anymore.

Any GOP candidate, not just McCain, would have to appeal to moderates and even Democrats to have a chance at winning. And conservatives are just going to have to suck it up and accept that the type of candidate who would most appeal to conservatives like them would not appeal to anyone else--and would go down to defeat.

It's kind of funny. The hardcore conservatives think that McCain would be worse than Bush. Come on, do you really think that W did a good job? He just proved that you can't work in a vacuum. He fought too much with the Republican controlled congress to try to establish a monachry and tried to remove "by the people and for the people" with his covert actions and secret spying on Americans. I don't think McCain would be a worse president, although I won't vote for him. If he wins however, I will support him.

If Obama wins, and I know that scares the hell out of most of you since this is something totally unexpected. I'm not a petty naysayer and think gloom and doom if he wins. He could be the next JFK and if he isn't and is a terrible president, (which at this point he would have to be worse than W), then you have 4 years to create your next Reagan. Better get cracking.

Obama's nomination is a massive change in race relations for this country. It was only the melodrama of the Clintonistas that overshadowed it. I know many people who never imagined a day like this. Now, lets keep race out of it and have a good rock em sock em election about who you would prefer.

...cutting to the chase;

I hope for the best by wishing the worst for this Nation.

It has become painfully obvious most, especially those of the younger ilk, have forgotten lessons of history, therefore, I intend to help wake up this Nation by voting for an ObamaNation which, if he's elected, should show within a four-year period of Demo control of House, Senate and POTUS, just how bad stupidity can make life on Earth.
After this, maybe - just maybe, even the youth of this country will thoughtfully stop listening to, and believing, the ignoramus intelligentsia, rather assist in the hopefully possible recovery of what is retrievable of this Nation, except this time including implementation of newly learned wisdom.

...and don't talk to me about Global Warming. Who cares, if you're dead, and with African killer bees migrating north at a rate of ~20 miles / month, I fear Global Swarming.

Selah -

I would like to point out that the RNC is going to have to spend quite a bit of it's cash on defending congressional seats in the Fall. They will not be able to use all, or even most, of their money to defend McCain. Considering the fact that the base is having a hard time mustering behind McCain, it seems the most successful strategy will be bringing down Obama's favorables. Unfortunately for McCain, that usually requires money.

For the record Eric, Obama does not support racial preferences he supports economic ones. He also has the best judgement and highest IQ of the remaining candidates. McSame will be lucky to live out his first term in office. c..f Regans second term!

I really like Obama, but I would be willing to vote for McCain. He absolutely has to come up with some substantial programs though. He has to come up with a plan on reforming Heath Care, complaining about the costs of Medicare and Medicaid isnt going to cut it. A plan to reorient America's energy policy towards nuclear power would be monumental. France does it; why cant we?

It's true that McCain is a pathetic old fool, but Obama is an equally pathetic academic who has proven himself to be economically naive. He doesn't seem to realize that self-employed people pay double social security tax, and he's talking about raising it.

In any case, the best we can do is to vote McCain for President and try to increase the Democrat's majority in Congress in order to keep the old boy in check.

If we're fool enough to elect Obama then we'd better get a GOP majority in Congress within 2 years, in order to maintain the system of checks and balances that we voted away during Bush's first 6 years.

Now that Ron Paul is out it looks like we are religated to a naive socialist with good body language or an idiotic, self-entitled old man. Huzzah!

John McCain has no chance and you neo-cons are in deep denial. McCain is behind in all the blue states kerry won and he is behind in (IA,MO,CO,NM,OH and tied in VA,IN). Obama only needs to win 3 of those states or just OH will do. As for the upcoming debates I'm amazed how many conservatives think he'll do better than Obama. Did you not watch him get owned by Romney and Ron Paul in the primary debates. The reason why McCain won the primary is because the core of the conservative base is prejudice and wouldn't support Romney. No wonder your camp is so anti-Obama and so ready to believe every single rumor about democrats. Most of you conservatives are a bunch of lunatics. You keep hate alive and we'll keep hope alive. Obama 2008/2012

My husband and I always donate to the Republican party, until now! We will not give one dime to McCain's campaign as long as he is running as a Democrat. There are so many major issues to address that need to be fixed, but one of the biggest for us is illegal immigration. Come live in California, and I swear, most of the time I think I am living in Mexico. The only language I hear is Spanish, everywhere I go I am surrounded by Mexicans with tons of kids running rampant, and usually with another one in the oven. What does McCain plan to do about it - make them all legal so they can now reap all the benefits of living in America, and do it legally. I am disgusted with his stance on this issue, and I was with Bush. I don't even know how McCain got this far, but I will abstan from voting rather than vote against my conscience. McCain simply does not represent conservative views - period!!! Our culture has, and is continuing to be eroded. There are some areas of L.A. that are identical to Tijuana - Southern California is turning into a third world state, and nobody in state or local government will do anything about it. I don't think that Arizona, his own state,fairs any better. Why doesn't McCain listen to us?

Hey Conservatives,

Let's not forget, Bob Barr, a libertarian, is in the race now. Spread the word. Let's also remember, in regards to Obama being elected, the best thing that ever happened for Reagan's presidency was Jimmy Carter.

John McCain Promises more war and starting new wars. John McCain will be a War President. Be Afraid people and watch crazy McCain in action on YouTube! To all of McCain supporters, you'all are idiots to vote for McSenile and he is a liar and dellusional. Watch the video and here how psycho McScam sounds.
Message to McCain from our troops
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xF_ZjhLd5Jo&feature=related
McCain's YouTube Problem Just Became a Nightmare:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GEtZlR3zp4c&feature=related

John McCain Will Bring Us More War
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ytzWNJlAk-k&feature=related

John McCain Says More Wars
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HZCISY40qns&NR=1

McCain now says: "Make it 10'000 Years"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e6CLxpFuSmA&feature=related

McCain needs to go into a Alzheimer facility because he is senile, old and he is definitely living in the Vietnam era, and ancient! To McScam supporters, you'all should join the army and shed your own BLOOD for this country and return to America disabled.

Anyone who holds their nose and votes for a candidate that smells so bad to them that they have to hold their nose to vote for that candidate can only expect the stench to follow them forever. I still can't get the stink out of my nose after having voted for Bush. (Holding my nose while I pulled the lever for Bush didn't help a bit! I had to let go of my nose eventually and the stench was much worse).

As for Obama???? He and McCain are interchangeable.

There IS a "C" choice, and even a "D" choice. There could be even more choices. No one need stay home and not vote.

I dare say the Dems and Repubs don't want anyone to think there are other choices besides them. Having read the things that both the diehard Republicans and Democrats have to say, I conclude that their platform is to 'Ridicule', 'belittle', 'deride', 'castigate', and attempt to 'frighten' everyone else with the boogyman of, "if you don't vote for this guy, that 'worse' guy will get it"! Well, I thank them for their invectives but truly I have a mind of my own and can discern for myself who is the best choice for me! No amount of money that they spend will have any affect on my choice. (I don't vote based on how much money a candidate has).

If you believe that your vote will be wasted, why NOT waste it on a third party?
Send the powers that be a powerful message! You can believe that if enough people vote third party BOTH major parties will "GET IT"!

Yep, that's why he beat Mitt Romney for the nom, despite being outspent 10 or 20 to one in most of the key primary states. The hard core conservative "values" base does provide shoe leather, but they are primarily working or middle class voters, not the wealthy and affluent, so appeals to these voters would have netted McCain only incremental gains in fundraising, at best.

Obama's money advantage wasn't much of a help for him against Hillary Clinton in the latter half of his primary campaign, where he lost repeatedly though outspending her 4 to 1. There is diminishing return on campaign spending after a certain amount has been spent. The first million dollars buys 5 times more than the last million. Somebody with a head for math should devise a formula.

Suffice to say, the winner will not be decided by fund-raising and spending alone. Even if Obama out-spends McCain 2 to 1, the advantage may only be 5 to 4 based on a realistic formula of how effective campaign dollars actually pan out to be.

Wait until the Mccain supporters find out John McCain admitted that he does not know how to use a computer! He said he has to rely on Cindy. There's also an interview by Vietnam Veterans Against John McCain, where a 30-year Army Colonel disputes McCain's "heroism" during Vietnam. The media has been "sitting" on this information. Huffington Post had the guts to put it out there.

This country gives us the freedom to choose our own destinies, and encourages self-enterprise. I think I'll become a bookie and take odds on how many of the millions of Obama contributors start demanding a refund after 6 months of his being in office. I could retire 10 years earlier than expected with those odds.

Reading through the comments, the majority appear to focus on "Obama has no clothes" or "McCain has betrayed conservatives". No one appears to focus on how much the country has changed in the past 8 years. An African American candidate who has a better then 50% chance of being president? As of 2006 I would have said that was impossible, and I'm willing to bet the majority of the people posting here would have agreed. The political landscape has significantly altered, and given that a "black" candidate can become nominee and have a serious shot of winning the presidency could not have happened if Bush was even semi-competent. According to Reuters, if you take out potenital voters over 65 Obama's numbers skyrocket to 20 points over McCain. In another 4-8 years, a third of those voting for McCain will be dead - if you're a member of the GOP, I'd be worried.

If the results of 7+ years of Bush represents the values and policies of the conservative republican, then I'm really glad that we have a different choice this fall. Lets take stock in what Bush and the neo-conservatives have provided this country. 1) A foreign policy based on the needs of big oil. 2) A war started under false pretenses. 3) An erosion of our constitutional rights with the passage of the Patriotic Act. 4) A program (NCLB) to turn our children into "widgets" and our teachers into "assembly line workers" that is a disaster in the making. 5) A federal government that can no longer provide needed assistance during natural disasters. 6) An economic policy based on tax cuts instead of a more comprehensive approach. 8) Policies that support movement of our jobs overseas. 9) A real attempt to corrupt our constitution with amendments that would specify the definition of marriage. 10) Policies that have 1 out of 6 Americans without health insurance. I could go on, but the picture is clear.

This a real list of the accomplishments of the conservatives and Bush. It is these policies that are turning the American people toward Obama. We gave the conservatives their opportunity to govern but I feel that we were duped! None of the above represents a positive outcome for our country. Quite the contrary, this list makes me ill and very concerned for our future! Make no mistake, it will probably take many years to undo the damage done by these policies, but we can start by letting the other party have their opportunity.

Rosaline- You are an idoit. How the hell can you say a prisoner of war for five years is anything but "heroic." The problem is he people like you who buy into the crap that gets spread out there and use that to inform yourself before you hit the voting booth. I don't listen to how "islamic" or "unpatriotic" Obama is and I refuse to hear how John McCain might not be a hero- The scary thought is the uninformed people who are going to decide our next leader if more knowledgeable people don't wake up and vote.

Rosaline- You are an idoit. How the hell can you say a prisoner of war for five years is anything but "heroic." The problem is he people like you who buy into the crap that gets spread out there and use that to inform yourself before you hit the voting booth. I don't listen to how "islamic" or "unpatriotic" Obama is and I refuse to hear how John McCain might not be a hero- The scary thought is the uninformed people who are going to decide our next leader if more knowledgeable people don't wake up and vote.

Any one who votes for McCain is a fool.

Please. Everyone is saying Obama this Obama that. Well lets talk about McCain. Lets talk about how he had to cancel a fundraising event at the home of billionaire made rich in the OIL business. This man who in running for his own campaign a few years back stated "women ought to give in while being raped, and if elected he would treat his FEMALE opponet like cattle." And to top it off Mr. McCain said well gotta disown him now, but we're not giving back any of that 300,000 that he helped raised for us. And then he's trying to reach out to a female base and talk about how Obama is a hypocrit. Please. Take a look at McCains voting records. Here's a man who says one thing and then votes for something else. Like how he had the audacity to go to Louisiana saying this will never happen again. I guess he forgot to mention the fact that he voted AGAINST legislation that would look into the mismanagement of money and fraud that happened down there. Yeah right, won't happen again. You people should educate yourselves on this mr. mccain. Look at those half hearted smiles he gives. The fakest smiles i've ever seen. He has lier written all across his face. Maybe he was a good man a few years ago, but that doesn't appear to be the same man that's running for president today!

McCain must stop prostituting himself for the sake of winning,he has no clear philosophy,and will say and do anything just to get get elected.This shows the man has no morals whatsoever.

McCain is a conservative candidate. Like all Republicans running for office this year; he is trying to convince us that he is not associated with George Bush. Say what? George Bush represents the Republican Party. He is their leader. He holds their values and he holds the positions that they cherish. Why would a 'conservative' try to convince us that he is an independent? Is he ashamed of his own party? He is McBush, look at his voting record. He is old, very old. His mother is long lived. Where's his father? Men don't live as long as women. He is on the verge on picking Mitt Romney as his running mate. Yikes! A Mormon in the White House! Now that is scary.

The only way McCain wins the election is to steal it. The vast majority of the American people are fed up with excessive militarism and economic policies designed to reward energy company, drug companies and defense manufacturers, and precious few others. OBAMA '08!

"Despite all of Obama's fund-raising prowess, fawning media coverage, a weak economy, skyrocketing gas prices, declining real estate values, and a Republican president with approval ratings in the low 30s, McCain is still nipping at Obama's heels in the polls. As people start to learn more and more about who Obama really is and what he really represents, its infatuation with him will begin to fade and McCain will move into the lead.

McCain will win in November, Mark it down."

SORRY Dan R.. Wishful thinking without any supporting facts does not count as objective analysis.

You had me until missile defense. We have spent billions on sections of the program that will have to be reworked before they work. That sort of waste is not conservative. For that matter, waste is not conservative.

Fortunately the Reign of Error ends in January, 2009.

I am a military man (Enlisted) of 27 years; Presidents come and go as do Wars. Problem one is everyone in the world hates us. It's not going to change overnight or over 4 years it will take time. What we need to do is focus at the task at hand which is complete the missions If we don't we will have the same thing happen that happened in Vietnam the military will suffer and if that happens how will those extremists do??? We will be attacked more all over the world by everybody who hates us they hate us for what we stand for Freedom I will vote Green this year ACU green democrats are Pacifists. And in a world of growing china military and everyone getting nukes we all better be thinking who will keep us afloat. The Honorable senator from Arizona has served time in War as does members of his family now. When elected he will be the first President to have Children of his own in Harm's Way in a long time. Oh yeah Republicans support the military better than Democrats. But I am not in THE MILITARY for MONEY, Hmm get shot at being sent to hell wholes Nope I am in it for the good ole USA!!! I hope you win President McCain cause if we don't I fear for a very scary 4 years...Choose wisely on your V.P. wouldn't it be strange if he asked Hillary Clinton? WOW okay that would be way to scary. But wouldn't that show Bipartism? That is what we need instead of two parties positioning for their own agendas... God Bless America!!

I'm 53 years old, and I have considered myself a conservative since my parents pinned a "Goldwater" button on me when I was 9, and I want to say a few things.

First: McCain is more conservative than any republican nominee for POTUS in my lifetime except for Reagan and maybe Goldwater, and that includes both Bushes. On restraining government spending alone, McCain is more conservative that GW Bush can ever hope to be. I had to hold my nose to some extent to vote for Ford, Dole, and both Bushes, but I did it. You whiners act like conservatives have never had to go through this before. McCain is not perfect, but he's better than Bush and most of the rest of them.

I spent the entire decade of the 90's listening to conservatives carry on about how much "character matters". Well, the republicans finally nominate somebody who actually HAS a little character, and some conservatives run off to pout. Maybe we should run that senator who is cruising the airport men's rooms, or the California Congressman who got convicted of bribery (no character, but hey, they were reliable "conservative votes").

My five children had a lot of mixed feelings about Bush (especially the college students among them), but they ALL recognise Obama for the fraud that he is, and they ALL support McCain and tell their friends to vote for him. This would not be true if they thought that McCain was just like Bush.

I have voted for conservatives my whole life, but I have never given money to a candidate for president. This year, I'm going to send some money to McCain.

Obama is racest and you wold have to be blind not and deaf not to hear or see it. His talk today was for black fathers and we all know absent fathers are not all back Please.......

The people in the Bush Administration have been so corrupt their own manager of the RNC scam over $700,000 and is being investigated by the FBI.

the question is not, " can McCain remain competive, but can Obama", as usual the media has it backwards.

barb,
I actually listened to Obama's remarks and found them quite interesting. I am an old-fashioned conservative, and one of my pet peeves is that personal responsibility seems to have fallen out of fashion. Obama spoke about the need for African American men to step up and take responsibility for their families. This is a good message, and especially important in the African American community where two out of three families have absentee fathers.
I am actually torn between these two candidates because I feel like the current incarnation of the GOP has strayed from my values. I agree and disagree with each candidate on different issues.
It's going to be a fascinating election year!

McCain is getting what he deserves. I'm giving my money to Ron Paul.

Funny- I can see that the fascist right wing wackos are justifiably stricken with fear that an "untested" Obama will be a terrible president. Clearly all of us have learned from the catastrophic "mistake" of the last two presidential elections. I would be scared of another "W" too if I were GOP...

I am a Christian Conservative and will not only not give McCain money but will actively campaign against him.
He has attacked our Christian leaders, attacked our Conservative principles, and is a disaster personally (see his calling his second wife a "cun*" and his marrying his second wife ONE MONTH after dumping his handicapped first wife -- real Christian), but is a disaster to our great GOP.

This is going to be an extremely difficult election for John McCain. He not only has to run against and extremely gifted, chrismatic candidate, but he also is in the party of a President that has an extremely low approval rating, however, running against conversatism is not the answer for McCain. He should embrace the conservative ideals, but distance himself from some of the failed policies of President Bush.

bravo kerner. mccain isn't perfect, neither was reagan, but he will likely be just as good a president. and obama is a fraud who deserves to lose.

You Obama haters are issuing dire warnings of how bad things might BECOME under President Obama. The majority of the electorate is voting based on how bad things ARE under President Bush. Do you really think that "Deport 'em all," Missile defense and drilling in ANWR are winning issues in 2008? Do you people ever talk with anybody but each other?

Eh, we still have several months till the elections. I'm sure something will turn up on both candidates. I'm afraid of that fact that we don't know much about Obama. And this site makes me laugh, http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/fightthesmearshome/ and we're suppose to believe him, huh? HAHAHA.

Any time our choice for the presidency comes down to one of two members of one of the lowest-regarded Congresses, ever, that is by definition a bad election. You do have to wonder how, with 300-odd million people, this is the best we can do. And they're both from the Senate, which is even more dysfunctional than the House. Pathetic. Neither of these candidates are in any sense attractive to me; neither would have been my choice, however, my choice now is A or B.

The writer says McCain's approach may be useful for getting votes but not money. Allowing as how that's true, we still choose presidents based on votes, not on the basis of an auction, so, if his approach -- however bad it is at raising money -- gets more votes on Election Day, then it was a success. It worked in the primaries: he was underfunded relative to most other Republicans. Perhaps people have become somewhat sick of political money machines masquerading as candidates. The movies with the biggest box office are not necessarily (in fact are rarely) the best movies.

Obama did vastly outraise Clinton, but he didn't get vastly more votes (let's leave behind all the hair-splitting over delegates) and barely limped over the finish line. He won a technical victory, not a sweeping political one.

Anyway, this election has been an unconventional one in many ways (two Senators, both "front-runners" fell by the wayside) so it may be that money alone is not the whole answer.

That said, if money were the only issue, McCain would be hopelessly behind in the polls, which he is not. One would think that for all of Obama's financial advantage and media adoration, he'd be walloping McCain in the polls and he is not.

A lead in the middle single digits for Obama, adjusted for margin of error, is a lead in the low single digits. That may hold up, it may not, but it does not foretell a landslide by any means and it's probbly as good as it's going to get for Obama, as it seems (based on the Democratic primaries) that Obama is not growing on voters as time passes. Anybody who was going to be mesmerized, has been.

Isn't the real question here why Obama's fund-raising machine isn't translating into overwhelming primary or poll success so far? The true believers will bleed themselves dry financially for his campaign: but they still only get one vote each.

I think that in the end, for most voters, it will be an election where people will vote for what they perceive to be the lesser of two evils (which member of the dysfunctional Senate is less worse?) and it will probably be McCain. People SAY they want change; the reality is that most people don't like a lot of upheaval in their lives.

The problem for McCain at that point is that he will have no real base -- nobody will feel like they 'own' his presidency in the sense of having an interest in its success, merely, that they voted for him 'cause the other guy seemed worse and their hope will be that he does as little as possible.

The main job of the president is Commander in Chief of the military. McCain was schooled at the Naval acadamy, Obama was educated at Harvard Law school. This is a no brainer as to who should lead our country in theses uncertain times.
It would be so nice to have a Commander in Chief who is actually qualified for the job and actually has a Military background!

It is truly heartening for this Democrat to see such dissatisfaction with Mr. McBush among the wingnuts.

hose of you who think mcbush is the messiah have been drinking the koolaid. e was an incompetent aval officer whose claim to fame was that he managed to get shot down and then violated his 0oath by making a statement to theVietnamese in less than 24 hours.. here were plenty of "heroes" in hanoi, but no mccain...

'He is McBush, look at his voting record. He is old, very old. His mother is long lived. Where's his father? Men don't live as long as women. He is on the verge on picking Mitt Romney as his running mate. Yikes! A Mormon in the White House! Now that is scary.'

McCain is not McBush, although he was described as such by Obama. Here's just a sample of his disagreements with Dubya:

1) McCain opposed Rumsfeld's strategy on Iraq. Eventually, Dubya has had to sack Rumsfeld and adopt McCain's strategy.
2) McCain opposed Dubya's 2001-2003 tax relief.
3) McCain is a longtime critic of the Russian dictator Vladimir Putain (AKA Putain de Ahmadinejad) and has proposed to expel Russia from the G8. Dubya is appeasing the Russian dictator.
4) McCain has promised to close Gitmo.
5) McCain advocates a cap-and-trade system, which Dubya opposes (and so do I).
6) McCain has served with the USN for 23 years, 6 of which he spent in NV. Dubya managed to avoid Vietnam when he joined the Texas ANG. This has later allowed anti-Iraqi-war protesters like Michael Moore to argue that the Iraqi war was started by 'men who have never been to war' - a reference to Dubya and Cheney. (And I believe that NO ONE who has not served with the US military should be allowed to run for the WH.) While immigrants are obliged to serve when called upon, Presidents aren't. That's not fair.
6) McCain has voted against every single pork-ladden Act, but Dubya has signed many such Acts. McCain has started to campaign against pork before even Dubya's FATHER won the WH.

"McCain could campaign on his pledge to appoint Supreme Court and Appellate justices who will interpret the Constitution, rather than rewriting it and publicly provide Conservatives a short-list of the kinds of people he'd appoint. Enforcing the law as written has gut level appeal to the base, and it makes sense to most people not on the left. He could supply a list of about a dozen rock-solid judges who are not partisan and not prone to legislating from the bench."

That's not what he promised. He promised to overturn Roe v. Wade by putting more justices like Roberts and Alito on the court. I sure hope he does campaign loudly and frequently on that -- he will lose half his women supporters, who are in the dark about his views.

"Ammunition"
Senator McCain is described as a war hero, because of his survival of torture in a prison camp in Vietnam. There is great credit to that. But for me (war vet/retiree,and South Bronx Ghetto Vet) a true war hero will face creating solutions to poverty ' inside' of poor and dangerous neighborhoods. He or she has the strength of conviction to conceive, create and execute the type of movement, that Obama has, despite constant death threats based on the color of his skin. Consider the FACT that the KKK as of June 2006 was awarded "tax exempt" status. Where was Sen. McCain's voice on that issue? Consider Obama's awesome record of service that has yet to be published, his (see Library Of Concress records) organizational skills (speaking of economy) and the daring dismissal of corrupted special interests, lobbyists etc. who have dictated the outcome of elections for decades. Consider that kind of courage along with the "audacity" of using it to challenge the imperialists-like principalities currently in power, who's historic flurry of scandals have once again brought this country to its knees and indeed 'DID' create the enemies we currently face. It seems perfectly logical to me and HISTORY and our allies, that his plans for economy, health care, peace, and everything else have already been proven. As for the unity of party, Obama's relocation of the DNC to reside and function from the same location as his headquarters in Chicago is a major unifying move. And the DNC strongly agree, again so does history. His largest supporters are educated people, who can and will articulate the details. If he is all of those things then so is Oprah, Senator Kennedy, and all the other VERY SUCCESSFUL leaders and constituents who support him. As for former President Carter (who also supports him) his policies and actions for peace, foreign affairs, and human rights have been hailed as the most effective and efficient of any president since Kennedy. And if you are discounting that the rest of the world leaders (enemies and allies) who see him as someone with wisdom (Harvard Professor/President of the Harvard Law Review) then consider the fact that what the individual said earlier about Obama being a socialist because free health care is a socialist concept. Then Britain, France, Sweden, Canada and all the other countries we applaud as being free are socialists too. You don't have to be a communist to have the wisdom to use aspects of their system that work. Just like McCain is trying to use Obama's. That EXTREMELY SUCCESSFUL system of health care was put in place in those countries as a direct result of WWII.
Consider all of this, and then add to that, Senator Obama, or anyone else for that matter, achieving presidential candidacy in their debut introduction to the world, in the most powerful country in the world 'without' the money of corrupted super-rich materialists. McCain does not have this experience. He chose not to take that path. In fact, with respect to his years of experience I ask myself why has it taken him this long to win a nomination? If the answer to that is dissention within his party, then all the more reason for them to get out of office! Furthermore the greatest change agents have typically been men and women of Obama's age group and even younger. Examples include John F. Kennedy and his brother Robert, Dr. Martin Luther King Jr., Alexander "the Great" Hannibal, King Solomon and even Bill Clinton. Why? because their empathy for righteousness was less corrupted, and they were fed up! to the point of willingness to put their lives on the line for justice. Humanity respects that, world-wide and here! That same righteous indignation enabled them to be great statesmen, foreign affairs negotiators, proponents for righteous, realistic and creative economic policy etc. A TRUE hero will look into the eyes of the enemy and read his spirit, his faults, fears and weaknesses, and if necessary acknowledge the evil that he too has done, and apologize, and humble himself, for the sake of creating the groundwork for PEACE!!! Even if you do not succeed in reconciliation you will have gathered valuable first hand information (The marines call it "Reconnaissance"), and gained the respect of those citizens under the influence of the enemy that desire human rights (democracy). Anyone would be foolish not to take advantage of those advantages. I'm a foot soldier. I didn't fly over war zones, I volunteered to meet the enemy face to face on the ground, in the desrt. Why does a so-called war hero object to that, unless he has something to fear?
Like many I am currently striving to recover from depression, poverty, and unemployment in the midst of debt slavery, broken transportation and the threat of eviction with no support system. But I am a soldier for truth, risen from the South Bronx, Georgia, and Mississippi, unto my last breath I proclaim that Obama's cause is the Godly one. I only pray that the condescending super-rich are transformed enough, in time to help address peace for the sake of the trillions of dollars needed to stop Global Warming from destroying life on Earth. See you on judgment day.

Money is a means to getting votes. If the votes are there, money doesn't matter. And they are there.

Conservatives won't abandon McCain because his shortage of conservativeness is more than offset by Obama's surplus of liberalness. Lots of people, when they vote, are really voting 'no' to the alternative.

Just look at the polls. McCain is doing well and he has nowhere to go but up. His VP pick can't help him, of course, but he will gain gradually over time as the campaign process pecks into Obama. He will also get a huge boost at the voting booths from the risk-averse undecideds.

Not to mention the 527's, which are going to mince Obama to bits for a minimum of 5 points per state. But nobody wants to talk about this now because there's really no way to approach the issue without appearing racist or fatalistic. But the unspeakable will be spoken, and so much as a whisper will tip 5% away from Obama.

Obama has two shots - his voter registration drive and his VP choice. That's it. The registration drive has to work and work big time. We'll know in a couple months. For VP he has to pick Clinton, not to pick up her support but because she's a known face and as such, will provide the best defence to the 527 slander.

By the way, I support Obama.

Bravo/Bravo kerner.
__________
The "truth machine" poster says, "He [Mccain] promised to overturn Roe v. Wade ...[that is flat NOT TRUE] ...by putting more justices like Roberts and Alito on the court [that is an asumption, not fact] It ranks with the ignorant - "We went to war for Big Oil" - "Tax cuts were for the rich" - and the totally false "Selected, not Elected". They must get this nonsense from TV or pulling words out of context.
McCain will win in November, not the con man B.Hussein Obama.

Chris has it right.

As a conservative, I will vote for Bob Barr.

McCain is NOT a conservative, and those that suggest he is are not dealing with reality!

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