The Shape of a Hillary-Rudy Race

Current national polls show both Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani with solid leads for their respective party's nominations. Clinton holds about a 20% lead over  Barack Obama in national polls , and is rated by London odds-makers a near 60% probability to be nominated.  Obama has faded a bit as a serious contender despite his early fund-raising success, following a series of what appeared to many to be naïve and contradictory statements on foreign policy issues.  Giuliani's lead for the GOP nomination over still unannounced candidate Fred Thompson has grown to about 10% in recent weeks.  The London odds-makers give Rudy a near 40% shot at the nomination, with Mitt Romney second at 23%.  Romney's strength in Iowa and New Hampshire means he is likely to be in the race for the duration, and given his substantial personal financial resources, he has a decent shot to be nominated. Thompson does not lead in any of the initial state contests and could fade as...(Read Full Article)

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