Election forecast

The Baehr Essentials We are four years on from the near—tied election of 2000.  But at least in terms of Presidential politics, things have not changed very much.  It is, in fact, quite possible that every state will vote the same way in 2004 as it did in 2000.  If this occurs, Bush would win 278—260, a slightly larger margin than in 2000 (271—266), since Congressional redistricting has added seven net Electoral College votes to the 30 red states. As of Sunday evening, I believe there are only three states that are likely to vote differently than they did in 2000, and every one of them could potentially go to the party that won that state in 2000.  New Hampshire's 4 Electoral College votes are tipping ever so slightly to Senator Kerry, though Bush has been closing fast in New Hampshire the last few days, necessitating a Kerry visit today. New Mexico's five Electoral College votes are leaning to President Bush, as are Iowa's seven, though it is...(Read Full Article)

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