Advantage: Bush

The Baehr Essentials The national polls show varying leads for President Bush at the moment, with most in the 3—5% range, and a few suggesting a bigger lead. But the state surveys are telling a more consistent story, with Bush holding a solid and growing lead. This is not surprising, given recent history. Modest popular vote margins often translate into very decisive Electoral College victories. In 1992, Bill Clinton was elected by a 43—38% margin (Ross Perot got 19%). But Clinton won easily in the Electoral College 370—168, winning 32 states. Clinton won again in 1996, by 8% over Bob Dole, the same margin by which Bush's father beat Michael Dukakis in 1988. Clinton received 379 Electoral College votes in 1996, winning 31 states, and Bush I won 426 Electoral College votes in 1988, taking 40 states.  During the late Spring, and early Summer, President Bush never led in any of the 'blue' states that were won by Al Gore in 2000.  But John Kerry at times...(Read Full Article)

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